Kentucky vs. Florida Predictions & Picks: Spread, Total – January 4

Published 11:28 pm Thursday, January 2, 2025

Saturday’s contest at Rupp Arena has the No. 10 Kentucky Wildcats (11-2, 0-0 SEC) taking on the No. 6 Florida Gators (13-0, 0-0 SEC) at 11:00 AM ET (on January 4). Our computer prediction projects a narrow 79-77 victory for Kentucky, so expect a tight matchup.

Based on our computer prediction, Kentucky should cover the point spread, which is listed at 1.5. The two sides are projected to fall short of the 165.5 over/under.

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Kentucky vs. Florida Game Info & Odds

  • Date: Saturday, January 4, 2025
  • Time: 11:00 AM ET
  • TV: ESPN
  • Live stream: Watch this game on Fubo (Regional restrictions may apply)
  • Where: Lexington, Kentucky
  • Venue: Rupp Arena
  • Line: Kentucky -1.5
  • Point total: 165.5
  • Moneyline (to win): Kentucky -115, Florida -104

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Kentucky vs. Florida Score Prediction

  • Prediction:
    Kentucky 79, Florida 77

Spread & Total Prediction for Kentucky vs. Florida

  • Pick ATS: Kentucky (-1.5)
  • Pick OU: Under (165.5)

Kentucky has put together a 6-7-0 record against the spread this season, while Florida is 10-3-0. The Wildcats have hit the over in seven games, while Gators games have gone over five times. The two teams combine to score 176.4 points per game, 10.9 more points than this matchup’s total. Kentucky is 4-6 against the spread and 8-2 overall in its past 10 contests, while Florida has gone 9-1 against the spread and 10-0 overall.

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Kentucky Performance Insights

  • The Wildcats average 89.0 points per game (third in college basketball) while allowing 71.3 per outing (188th in college basketball). They have a +230 scoring differential overall and outscore opponents by 17.7 points per game.
  • Kentucky averages 37.8 rebounds per game (16th in college basketball) while allowing 33.0 per outing to its opponents. It outrebounds opponents by 4.8 boards per game.
  • Kentucky hits 9.8 three-pointers per game (42nd in college basketball) at a 35.5% rate (111th in college basketball), compared to the 7.2 per game its opponents make at a 27.4% rate.
  • The Wildcats average 107.7 points per 100 possessions (13th in college basketball), while giving up 86.3 points per 100 possessions (84th in college basketball).
  • Kentucky has typically won the turnover battle this season, committing 9.0 per game (10th in college basketball play) while forcing 10.7 (284th in college basketball).

Florida Performance Insights

  • The Gators’ +311 scoring differential (outscoring opponents by 23.9 points per game) is a result of putting up 87.4 points per game (eighth in college basketball) while giving up 63.5 per contest (24th in college basketball).
  • Florida wins the rebound battle by 13.9 boards on average. It collects 43.5 rebounds per game, first in college basketball, while its opponents pull down 29.6.
  • Florida connects on 9.7 three-pointers per game (44th in college basketball) at a 34.5% rate (147th in college basketball), compared to the 6.0 per game its opponents make, at a 26.6% rate.
  • Florida has committed 1.9 fewer turnovers than its opponents, averaging 10.9 (124th in college basketball) while forcing 12.8 (129th in college basketball).

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