Thursday’s game at Carmichael Arena has the No. 16 North Carolina Tar Heels (7-1) squaring off against the No. 14 Kentucky Wildcats (7-0) at 5:00 PM (on December 5). Our computer prediction projects a 65-61 victory for North Carolina, who is a small favorite based on our model.

According to our computer prediction, Kentucky is projected to cover the spread (8.5) versus North Carolina. The two teams are expected to fall short of the 130.5 total.

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North Carolina vs. Kentucky Game Info & Odds

• Date: Thursday, December 5, 2024
• Time: 5:00 PM ET
• TV channel: ESPN2
• Live stream: Watch this game on Fubo (Regional restrictions may apply)
• Where: Chapel Hill, North Carolina
• Venue: Carmichael Arena
• Line: North Carolina -8.5
• Point total: 130.5
• Moneyline (to win): North Carolina -450, Kentucky +333

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North Carolina vs. Kentucky Score Prediction

• Prediction:
  North Carolina 65, Kentucky 61

Spread & Total Prediction for North Carolina vs. Kentucky

• Pick ATS: Kentucky (+8.5)
• Pick OU: Under (130.5)

North Carolina’s record against the spread this season is 4-1-0, and Kentucky’s is 3-1-0. None of the Tar Heels’ games this season have hit the over, and one of the Wildcats’ games have gone over. The two teams score an average of 151.6 points per game, 21.1 more points than this matchup’s total.

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North Carolina Performance Insights

• The Tar Heels have a +199 scoring differential, topping opponents by 24.9 points per game. They’re putting up 73.5 points per game to rank 85th in college basketball and are giving up 48.6 per contest to rank third in college basketball.
• The 37.8 rebounds per game North Carolina averages rank 44th in the nation, and are 6.7 more than the 31.1 its opponents grab per outing.
• North Carolina hits 3.9 more threes per contest than the opposition, 8.4 (35th in college basketball) compared to its opponents’ 4.5.
• The Tar Heels’ 91.2 points per 100 possessions on offense rank 76th in college basketball, and the 60.3 points they allow per 100 possessions rank eighth in college basketball.
• North Carolina has committed 11.5 turnovers per game (16th in college basketball play), seven fewer than the 18.5 it forces on average (88th in college basketball).

Kentucky Performance Insights

• The Wildcats put up 78.1 points per game (49th in college basketball) while giving up 52.6 per contest (15th in college basketball). They have a +179 scoring differential and outscore opponents by 25.5 points per game.
• Kentucky wins the rebound battle by 12.5 boards on average. It collects 40.9 rebounds per game, 15th in college basketball, while its opponents grab 28.4.
• Kentucky knocks down 7 three-pointers per game (110th in college basketball), 2.6 more than its opponents.
• Kentucky has committed 1.5 fewer turnovers than its opponents, averaging 12.1 (27th in college basketball) while forcing 13.6 (311th in college basketball).

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