Saturday’s contest between the No. 14 Mississippi State Bulldogs (14-1, 2-0 SEC) and the No. 6 Kentucky Wildcats (12-3, 1-1 SEC) at Humphrey Coliseum has a projected final score of 80-77 based on our computer prediction, with Mississippi State taking home the win. Game time is at 8:30 PM ET on January 11.

Based on our computer prediction, Kentucky projects to cover the 4.5-point spread in its matchup versus Mississippi State. The over/under is listed at 161.5, and the two sides are projected to come in below that total.

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Mississippi State vs. Kentucky Game Info & Odds

• Date: Saturday, January 11, 2025
• Time: 8:30 PM ET
• TV: SEC Network
• Live stream: Watch this game on Fubo (Regional restrictions may apply)
• Where: Starkville, Mississippi
• Venue: Humphrey Coliseum
• Line: Mississippi State -4.5
• Point total: 161.5
• Moneyline (to win): Mississippi State -184, Kentucky +152

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Mississippi State vs. Kentucky Score Prediction

• Prediction:
  Mississippi State 80, Kentucky 77

Spread & Total Prediction for Mississippi State vs. Kentucky

• Pick ATS: Kentucky (+4.5)
• Pick OU: Under (161.5)

Mississippi State has put together a 9-6-0 record against the spread this season, while Kentucky is 7-8-0. The Bulldogs have a 7-8-0 record hitting the over, while games involving the Wildcats have a record of 8-7-0 when it comes to hitting the over. The two teams average 172.3 points per game, 10.8 more points than this matchup’s total. In the past 10 games, Mississippi State is 6-4 against the spread and 9-1 overall while Kentucky has gone 3-7 against the spread and 7-3 overall.

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Mississippi State Performance Insights

• The Bulldogs average 83.5 points per game (28th in college basketball) while allowing 66.5 per outing (61st in college basketball). They have a +254 scoring differential overall and outscore opponents by 17 points per game.
• Mississippi State records 37.1 rebounds per game (23rd in college basketball) while allowing 31.2 per contest to its opponents. It outrebounds opponents by 5.9 boards per game.
• Mississippi State makes 8.7 three-pointers per game (99th in college basketball), 1.4 more than its opponents (7.3). It is shooting 34.2% from beyond the arc (161st in college basketball) while allowing opponents to shoot 32.8%.
• The Bulldogs’ 105.1 points per 100 possessions on offense rank 30th in college basketball, and the 83.8 points they allow per 100 possessions rank 34th in college basketball.
• Mississippi State has had fewer turnovers than its opponents this season, committing 9.2 per game (15th in college basketball action) while forcing 13.9 (49th in college basketball).

Kentucky Performance Insights

• The Wildcats put up 88.8 points per game (third in college basketball) while allowing 73.9 per outing (249th in college basketball). They have a +223 scoring differential and outscore opponents by 14.9 points per game.
• Kentucky wins the rebound battle by 3.6 boards on average. It collects 36.7 rebounds per game, 26th in college basketball, while its opponents grab 33.1.
• Kentucky knocks down 9.8 three-pointers per game (40th in college basketball) at a 35.7% rate (89th in college basketball), compared to the 7.5 per game its opponents make, at a 28.1% rate.
• Kentucky wins the turnover battle by 1.7 per game, committing nine (seventh in college basketball) while its opponents average 10.7.

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